Why Are Ron Paul’s Poll Numbers Improving?

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Ron Paul's numbers are improving
Once considered a “fringe” presidential candidate, Texas Congressman Ron Paul is suddenly being taken seriously by voters and the media alike.

After finishing second to Michelle Bachmann in the recent Iowa straw poll, and having climbed into third in most polls of republican candidates (behind Rick Perry and Mitt Romney), Paul has become a force to be reckoned with. His poll numbers are improving.

So, why the sudden surge in popularity? Is it due to Paul’s debating skills or slick packaging by his handlers?

Or, could it be due to the electorate’s realization that our country faces some of the most severe economic, monetary, and security problems in its history, and Paul’s proposals for addressing them make more sense than that of any other candidate?

Unlike many of his competitors, Paul is very specific about how he would resolve our country’s many woes. According to his Ron Paul for President website, the ten-term congressman would do the following as president:

On the Economy

  • Veto any unbalanced budget submitted by Congress.
  • Refuse to raise the debt ceiling so politicians can no longer spend recklessly.
  • Fully audit (and then end) the Federal Reserve System, which continues to create money out of thin air to finance future debt.
  • End the corporate stranglehold on the White House.
  • Reduce gas prices by allowing offshore drilling, abolish highway motor fuel taxes, increase the mileage reimbursement rates, and offer tax credits for the use and production of natural gas vehicles.
  • Eliminate income, capital gains, and death taxes.

On Healthcare

    • Repeal ObamaCare and end its unconstitutional mandate that all Americans must carry only government-approved health insurance.
    • Allow purchase of health insurance across state lines.
    • Provide tax credits and deductions for all medical expenses.
    • Exempt those with terminal illnesses from the employee portion of payroll taxes.
    • Give a payroll deduction to any worker who is the primary caregiver for a spouse, parent, or child with a terminal illness.
    • Guarantee that Medicare and Medicaid funds are not raided for other purposes.
    • Make all Americans eligible for Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and remove government-imposed barriers to obtaining HSAs.

On National Defense

      • Secure our national borders.
      • Avoid expensive land wars by using constitutional means to capture or kill terrorist leaders who attack the U.S. and plot further attacks.
      • End the nation-building that is increasing our debt and sacrificing the lives of our troops.
      • Follow the Constitution by asking Congress to declare war before one is waged.
      • Only send our military into conflict with a clear mission and the tools they need to accomplish it.
      • Ensure our veterans receive the care, benefits, and honors they have earned when they return.
      • Revitalize the military for the 21st century by eliminating waste in the military budget.
      • Stop giving rich dictators taxpayer money through foreign aid.

Are Ron Paul’s positions extreme? Some think so.

But, in an age of $1.5 trillion annual budget deficits (with 41 cents of every dollar spent
being borrowed), and a national debt in excess of $14 trillion (with $4 trillion having been added in the last 30 months alone), maybe not that extreme.

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Will The Debt Ceiling Compromise Actually Reduce The Deficit?

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With typical Washington hysterics, Congress struck a last-minute deal to raise the US debt ceiling, enabling the Treasury to continue borrowing and, supposedly, avoid defaulting on payments to our creditors.

The deal included neither the level of spending cuts the Republicans wanted, nor the tax increases the Democrats were looking for. Conventional wisdom says that since both sides were unsatisfied with the deal, it must have some redeeming qualities. But, since when is wisdom in Washington conventional?

The deal immediately increases the US debt ceiling by $400 billion, and allows the President to request another $500 billion increase which Congress could vote down (by attaining a veto-proof a two thirds margin). An additional increase of $1.5 trillion becomes available after a special committee identifies matching levels of spending cuts.

The agreement also calls for spending cuts of more than $900 billion over ten years, with discretionary spending being decreased by $21 billion in 2012 and $42 billion in 2013. The compromise does not include any tax increases.

The deal also creates a 12-person House and Senate special committee to identify further spending cuts. The committee must make its recommendations to Congress, which will hold an up-or-down vote (Congress cannot modify the committee’s recommendations). If the special committee fails to reach an agreement or if Congress rejects its recommendations, automatic spending cuts of at least $1.2 trillion (50% defense/50% non-defense) would go into effect.

So, will this compromise solve our debt crisis? The numbers aren’t promising.

For fiscal years 2008, 09 and 10, Congress recorded budget deficits of $1 trillion, $1.9 trillion and $1.7 trillion, respectively. The $4.6 trillion debt incurred during these three years is equivalent to total debt the US accumulated from its founding in 1789 through 1994.

Further, this agreement raises the debt ceiling from $14.3 trillion (which is 98.6% of our 2010 GNP) to $16.7 trillion. Plus, the spending cuts are “back-loaded” (discretionary spending is reduced by a mere $21 billion – 0.6% of the $3.8 trillion budget – in 2012), and can be waived in the future.

Clearly, the fact that these outrageous spending levels are up to Congress’ “discretion” is the problem.

Fortunately, the debt ceiling agreement also requires that the House of Representatives and the Senate vote on a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution.

Though passage neither assured nor likely, such an amendment is our only option for reclaiming fiscal sanity.

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