Economic Turbulence

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Here is an article that I wrote on December 8, 2007 regarding the imminent ecomonic crisis:

Everyone should prepare to withstand imminent economic turbulence in 2008.

Without being an economist, I feel confident in making this assertion just by looking at very simple, but huge indicators that anyone can witness and evaluate.

Our country is involved in an expensive war in the Middle East that costs billions of dollars. Our current administration is looking to expand the war. The invoice for the war will certainly be presented to the nation soon, which means the burden to fund war operations rests exclusively with taxpayers.

The size of government is growing, and elected officials are legislating guaranteed pay raises and benefits every single year for themselves and bureaucrats. Government employee salaries alone are increasing by a rate of at least 3% each year.

Those increases are being subsidized innocuously through, for example, the imposition of higher licensing fees, cigarette taxes and other creative taxing methods that fly under the radar of most taxpayers.

Small business retailers are finding it difficult to make ends meet. Next time, as you drive down Main Street in your community, take note of the number of retail vacancies that are slowly beginning to pop-up in shopping centers and strip malls.

Gasoline prices fluctuate every week by a margin of 10 to 15 cents per gallon. And, in case you haven’t noticed, utility companies are requesting and obtaining rate increases from your local public service commissions.

Housing values are slowly, but surely declining, meaning that your nest egg- the equity you’ve accumulated in your home- is beginning to disappear right before your very eyes.

What does this all mean?

Your margin of discretionary income is beginning to narrow exponentially, and you will be required to make up the difference by tapping into your savings and emergency funds.

Once those funds are tapped out, financial trouble begins.

Take the time to review and adjust your spending habits and the reliability of your source of income. Pay attention to your what your local and state representatives are doing to increase government spending.

Be cognizant of the fact that, as you’re taking steps to reduce your financial burden, others are taking steps to increase it.

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Ron Paul on Economic Bailouts

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Ron Paul on bailouts

Ron Paul’s statement regarding the current economic crisis:

“Many Americans today are asking themselves how the economy got to be in such a bad spot.

For years they thought the economy was booming, growth was up, job numbers and productivity were increasing. Yet now we find ourselves in what is shaping up to be one of the most severe economic downturns since the Great Depression.

Unfortunately, the government’s preferred solution to the crisis is the very thing that got us into this mess in the first place: government intervention.

Ever since the 1930s, the federal government has involved itself deeply in housing policy and developed numerous programs to encourage homebuilding and homeownership.

Government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were able to obtain a monopoly position in the mortgage market, especially the mortgage-backed securities market, because of the advantages bestowed upon them by the federal government.

Laws passed by Congress such as the Community Reinvestment Act required banks to make loans to previously underserved segments of their communities, thus forcing banks to lend to people who normally would be rejected as bad credit risks.

These governmental measures, combined with the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy, led to an unsustainable housing boom. The key measure by which the Fed caused this boom was through the manipulation of interest rates, and the open market operations that accompany this lowering.

Because the boom comes about from an increase in the supply of money and not from demand from consumers, the result is malinvestment, a misallocation of resources into sectors in which there is insufficient demand.

In this case, this manifested itself in overbuilding in real estate. When builders realize they have overbuilt and have too many houses to sell, too many apartments to rent, or too much commercial real estate to lease, they seek to recoup as much of their money as possible, even if it means lowering prices drastically.

This lowering of prices brings the economy back into balance, equalizing supply and demand. This economic adjustment means, however that there are some winners — in this case, those who can again find affordable housing without the need for creative mortgage products, and some losers — builders and other sectors connected to real estate that suffer setbacks.

The government doesn’t like this, however, and undertakes measures to keep prices artificially inflated. This was why the Great Depression was as long and drawn out in this country as it was.

I am afraid that policymakers today have not learned the lesson that prices must adjust to economic reality. The bailout of Fannie and Freddie, the purchase of AIG, and the latest multi-hundred billion dollar Treasury scheme all have one thing in common: They seek to prevent the liquidation of bad debt and worthless assets at market prices, and instead try to prop up those markets and keep those assets trading at prices far in excess of what any buyer would be willing to pay.

Additionally, the government’s actions encourage moral hazard of the worst sort. Now that the precedent has been set, the likelihood of financial institutions to engage in riskier investment schemes is increased, because they now know that an investment position so overextended as to threaten the stability of the financial system will result in a government bailout and purchase of worthless, illiquid assets.

Using trillions of dollars of taxpayer money to purchase illusory short-term security, the government is actually ensuring even greater instability in the financial system in the long term.

The solution to the problem is to end government meddling in the market. Government intervention leads to distortions in the market, and government reacts to each distortion by enacting new laws and regulations, which create their own distortions, and so on ad infinitum.

It is time this process is put to an end. But the government cannot just sit back idly and let the bust occur. It must actively roll back stifling laws and regulations that allowed the boom to form in the first place.

The government must divorce itself of the albatross of Fannie and Freddie, balance and drastically decrease the size of the federal budget, and reduce onerous regulations on banks and credit unions that lead to structural rigidity in the financial sector.

Until the big-government apologists realize the error of their ways, and until vocal free-market advocates act in a manner which buttresses their rhetoric, I am afraid we are headed for a rough ride.”

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