Update On Rick Perry’s Presidential Chances

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Is Rick Perry riding to the rescue or riding off into the sunset?

With poor performances in recent candidate debates and unsatisfactory explanations for controversial initiatives, Governor Perry has gone from a 13 point August lead to a three to seven point deficit in recent polls. In fact, he trails both Mitt Romney and Herman Cain by five points in the 10/2/11 CBS News poll (Romney – 17%, Cain – 17%, Perry – 12%).

Are debate gaffes the only reason Perry’s numbers are declining? While his opponents understandably attack his characterization of Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme,” his executive order mandating that Texas girls receive the HPV vaccine and his ongoing support for providing in-state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants, are these stances why Republican voters are turning away?

Many think his weak debates are a symptom of deeper problems. On a recent “Fox & Friends” appearance, former Republican candidate Mike Huckabee thought Perry looked dumbfounded at an immigration question he should have seen coming. Huckabee indicate that Perry’s apparent exhaustion proved the he “is not prepared for the pressure of the presidential stage.”

Perry’s handling of Texas’s economy has also come under scrutiny. Despite the number of new jobs created, 23 states have a lower unemployment rate than Texas (8.2% in August). According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 9.5% of hourly-paid workers in Texas are paid at or below minimum wage (the national percentage is 6.0%). Plus, the state’s poverty level continues to increase (from 15.1% in 2009 to 18.4% in 2010).

Others are questioning whether Perry’s strong social conservatism and its influence on his policy making might turn off independent and moderate voters.

Perry is staunchly pro-life and opposes government funding for elective abortions. As governor, Perry signed the Prenatal Protection Act – which explicitly included fetuses in its definition of human life – and another bills that limited late-term abortions, required girls under the age of 18 to notify their parents before having an abortion, and required providers to offer informational brochures to women considering abortion.

Perry has also stated that he believes in the inerrancy of the Bible and that those who don’t accept Jesus as their savior will go to hell. He also describes himself “a firm believer in intelligent design as a matter of faith and intellect,” and has expressed support for its teaching alongside evolution in Texas schools.

No one said that running for president would be easy. Especially when your debating skills are lacking, your economic record is uneven, and your religious views are considered extreme by a majority of the electorate.

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Perry vs Papillomavirus

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“I’m offended for all the little girls and parents that didn’t have a choice (about getting a vaccination against HPV per order of Texas Gov. Rick Perry.)” Rep. Michelle Bachmann at a candidate forum in Florida, Sept. 13, 2011 (NY Times)

Perry ordered mandatory vaccinations of Texas 6th grade schoolgirls against Human Papillomavirus (HPV) in 2007, but the order provided that parents could opt-out by signing a conscientious objector form, so Bachmann is wrong about parents having no choice. The order was never implemented due to backlash from the legislature. (1)

But was Perry right about the HPV vaccination? HPV is the most common STD (sexually transmitted disease), affecting about half of all sexually active people eventually. About 70% of cervical cancers are caused by HPV, so the danger of HPV is much greater than that of other STD’s, such as herpes. Cervical cancer is diagnosed in about 11,000 women every year, and about 4,000 patients die from it annually. (2)

The Gardasil vaccine, which Perry chose, is made by Merck Pharmaceutical, a generous donor to Perry’s campaigns. (3) But more important, Gardasil is certified by the Federal Drug Administration (FDA) as both very safe (no serious side-effects) and highly effective against HPV, especially if administered by age 12. (2)

So there are two excellent ways to prevent a teen-age girl from getting HPV: the vaccine and abstinence from sexual activity. Even with the opt-out exemption, Texas could protect the vast majority of girls in the state from HPV by requiring the vaccine. Abstinence would be even better (for many reasons, aside from STD’s), but surveys indicate that about 36% of high school girls are sexually active. (4) ( Six percent reported their first intercourse by the age of 14.) Since preaching abstinence by parents, schools and churches has not been effective with this 36% of HS girls, the vaccine is the best way to save this group from the dire consequences of their own irresponsible behavior. It also protects rape victims from the consequences of the evil acts of some men, many of whom have a STD.

Vaccination of all young females in Texas would prevent about 630 cases of cervical cancer each year, which would save about 230 lives per year. Since every human life is precious, mandatory vaccination is justified. Although the decision to order it should have been made by the legislature, rather than the Governor, it was the right decision.

I am not among Gov. Rick Perry’s many admirers, but I believe that his vaccination order was motivated by a desire to save lives rather than by campaign funds.

Gerald S Glazer

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(1) Politico.com

(2) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website

(3) $5,000 for 2010, a total of $28,000 for all Perry’s campaigns.

(4) Resource Center for Adolescent Pregnancy Prevention website.

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Rick Perry Is Not A Suitable Candidate For President

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Rick Perry imageRiding in on his white stallion, Rick Perry has quickly ascended to the top of the 2012 GOP presidential polls.

Despite his late entry into the race, the August RealClearPolitics.com average of six leading presidential polls showed Perry with a 5 point lead over Mitt Romney, his nearest rival. In fact, the August 25th CNN/Opinion Research poll credited Perry with a 13 point lead (Perry – 27, Romney – 14, Palin – 10, Bachmann – 9).

So, will another former Texas Governor take residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue?

On the country’s most pressing issue — unemployment — Perry can make an impressive case. Since June, 2009, over 40% of all net new US jobs were created in Texas. The Governor maintains his pro-growth agenda which included tax cuts, incentives for new technologies, strong tort reforms, and investments in education is largely responsible for the state’s thriving economy.

But, Rick Perry has no shortage of critics. Opponents, including many Republicans, point to a number of factors which may trouble conservatives, and ultimately undermine his candidacy:

  • Since Perry assumed office, state spending has nearly doubled from $49 billion in 2000 to approximately $90 billion in 2010. This contradicts his “reduce the size of government” theme.
  • Despite the number of new jobs created, 23 states have a lower unemployment rate than Texas (8.2% in August).
  • Texas’s total debt has increased 281% during Perry’s tenure (from $13.4 billion in 2001 to $34 billion in 2010).
  • Perry received $37 million over 10 years from just 150 donors (over a third of the $102 million he had raised as governor). Almost half of those donors received big contracts, tax breaks or appointments during Perry’s tenure.
  • According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 9.5% of hourly-paid workers in Texas are paid at or below minimum wage (the national percentage is 6.0%).
  • Perry’s overt religious faith and often stated belief in “intelligent design” make many moderates uncomfortable. He is strongly pro-life, opposes public funding of elective abortions, and supports amending the Texas constitution to define marriage as “only a union between a man and a women.”
  • The state’s educational performance is poor. Texas has the lowest percentage of adults with high school diplomas, is 49th in verbal SAT scores and 46th in average math SAT scores.
  • A former Democrat, Perry served as Al Gore’s campaign chairman in the state of Texas in 1988.

So is Rick Perry the GOP’s best bet to beat Barack Obama in 2012? When all the facts are considered, Republican primary voters may not want to “mess with Texas.”

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